The Technological Singularity will Begin in China
The future is less TikTok and more Emerging Tech Monopiles out of China
🛰️The Technological Singularity will Begin in China
🧧 The future is less TikTok and more Emerging Tech Monopiles out of China
The Technological Singularity will arrive in China.
When TikTok’s recommendation engine produced results that began to disrupt the likes of Instagram and YouTube, Silicon Valley stood on notice. Was this the beginning of a new trend?
Today in 2023, most social media platform have begun to clone TikTok’s version of “Entertainment” algorithmic influence as the dominant model of the future of social media feeds and recommendations. A new report outlines some of the more tangible ways in which China will begin to lead in emerging technologies and enough industries to imagine that the technological singularity (in the future) will be made in China.
I’ve been writing about China’s unique position in A.I. for many years. From facial recognition, to the top A.I. researchers (many of whom are U.S. educated), to how the Chinese Government has invested in innovation and A.I. in much more strategic way, we are reaching a point where we have to take them more seriously.
Twenty years ago, there was a huge gulf between China and the United States on AI research. But what will it be in the next twenty years? I believe China is much better positioned. It’s hard to find objective material with regards to the U.S. vs. China cold-war tech and A.I. arms race.
I believe for instance Baidu’s Ernie could surprise a lot of people compared to BingAI and Google’s Bard. China’s unique regulatory (censorship) approach to A.I. is also an advantage in creating A.I. that tethers well with more consumer convenience at scale. This is difficult for Americans to understand, who still use credit cards instead of QR codes for payments, and where facial recognition has been slow to roll out to banks, retail and in public transportation.
Former Google CEO, Eric Schmidt, wants the U.S. government to implement his sweeping blueprint to fight what he considers an existential threat to democracy posed by China's AI plans, even as he profits on the side as Venture Capitalist (Protocol) by his power and influence.
The U.S. and Europe are very much behind in how they are investing in the future of technology. I believe in the 2030s and 2040s we’ll see this more and more compared to China’s emphasis here.
Do you believe China is ahead in A.I. or will be ahead in the near-term in the coming years?
🐲 China is the Future of Emerging Tech
While this may have once been controversial to state this opinion, there’s more and more evidence each year about how the U.S. is likely to fair vs. China in the future of A.I. ane emerging technologies. It’s my day job to cover this, and over the years I’ve been saying the same thing, my conviction has only increased.
China has a "stunning lead" in 37 out of 44 critical and emerging technologies as Western democracies lose a global competition for research output, a security think tank said on Thursday after tracking defence, space, energy and biotechnology.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) said its study showed that, in some fields, all of the world's top 10 research institutions are based in China.
I’m Canadian and living in Taiwan currently, and I’m politically agnostic. I don’t care one way or the other if the U.S. is able to sanction China to create more time but the reality is its a closing window of American dominance, according to this Australian think tank as well:
Their report even says China is a “Monopoly risk” in many areas:
High Risk areas of Chinese Monopoly
Nanoscale materials (this means Space-Tech)
6G and smart cities
EV batteries and EV automotive industry
Quantum Sensing (photonic, and with military applications).
A.I. & Blockchain generally
Hypersonic missiles and weapons
Drones and autonomous Swarm technology
Military applications of Quantum and A.I. technologies (i.e. Military “AQ”)
Computer vision, facial recognition and related surveillance capitalism
Quantum Communications, Blockchain and 6G integration in infrastructure
I recommend you download the full report if you want more info. It is a PDF of 84 pages. See the full visual snapshot here. (as the above graphic may not be legible on some screens).
So the U.S. can pretend it’s investing in Quantum computing, A.I. and boosting its own EV industry (mostly just Tesla subsidies), or ban China with chips from Nvidia, AMD and others (ASML for instance), but this only pushes China to innovate faster its own supply-chain. China has been investing more $ for at least a decade longer. China won’t always be behind in the Cloud, Generative A.I. or its semiconductor chip supply-chain.
If Australia can admit this, why don’t you ever see this information on U.S. social media? It begs a real question. The UK based State of A.I. 2022 Report had a glimpse of data on China’s A.I. prominence.
Here is their slide 48:
China’s output of A.I. research already far exceeds in terms of growth that of the U.S.
Weirdly Microsoft’s extensive role in helping develop China’s AI industry has gone for the most part unmentioned in the U.S. media, The Dispatch (formerly on Substack) recently noted. Microsoft’s $10 Billion funding of OpenAI recently has been heralded as a real breakthrough. Yet Microsoft’s presence in China actually helps China as so many of Microsoft Research’s A.I. talent are actually Chinese.
What does that say about talent in the U.S. regarding the future of A.I.?
The top companies and academic institutions in the U.S. likely have Chinese eyes everywhere with nearly full penetration into U.S. technology, emerging tech and innovation. China’s strategy of corporate espionage, IP theft and unscrupulous tactics to get ahead in technology have been well covered over the last decade.
At around the year 2032, in my opinion, China becomes the leading innovator without having to copy, steal, and clone the technologies of others. This is when a serious gap occurs on a geopolitical scale between what China can do vs. the U.S. in terms of global influence both economically, politically and in terms of military actions. We are still a decade from that point, but China’s lead in a multitude of areas has a high probability of supplanting the U.S. as the technology and economic power of the 21st century.
Even Eric Schmidt, easily among the most influential private-sector voices sowing a sense of urgent concern that the U.S. is losing a battle against China for AI supremacy, has a limited impact on how China stretches its A.I. Supremacy in the late 2020s into a competitive advantage across a multitude of fields and industries. Even the recommendations of the National AI Research Resource (NAIRR) falls flat. This is simply because of China’ efficiency in terms of long-term planning vs. the U.S. half-hearted Corporate monopoly capitalism with Government favors.
Going back to the new information for this article, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) said its study showed that, in some fields, all of the world's top 10 research institutions are based in China. For American patriots, there is clearly a lot of ignorance and denial which is short-sighted here. A.I. supremacy is a winner-takes all zero-sum game.
The study, funded by the United States State Department, found the United States was often second-ranked, although it led global research in high-performance computing, quantum computing, small satellites and vaccines. I believe, everything from Quantum computing, to space-technology, to military applications of Drone Swarms, China will eventually be the global leader. This comes from a decade of studying the topic and covering many of the industries.
Going back to the State of A.I. Report here is the second slide about China that you might want to be aware of:
A.I. research in reality is very collaborative and global, but should obviously include Chinese language research. Here China will soon be around a decade ahead of the U.S. in terms of the quantity (not necessarily the quality) of A.I. research.
The Technological Singularity Occurs in China
By the time the great convergence of technological progress occurs in the 21st century in the middle of the century, China is fully dominant.
This means it’s China that will own the A.I. supremacy of biotechnology, space-technology, robotics (including humanoid general purpose robots), quantum A.I., supercomputing and the A.I. of retail, law, finance, education, energy and healthcare. Probability indicates if AGI occur in the 21st century, it won’t be OpenAI or some BigTech company in the U.S., it will occur in China, who have the actual means of regulating it.
This is somewhat speculative for some people to understand. What I’m claiming is nothing new, but it is controversial.
The report by ASPI is yet another indicator and wake up call that the world could look and feel very different in even just twenty years where China may become a leader and even have a monopolistic power over the world in ways we can hardly imagine today.
You can see more related visuals that are easier to read here.
Thanks for reading! (1,562 words)